Cutting aviation weather research would be to NOAA avail!!!

By Sandy Murdock • June 10, 2026

JDA Aviation Technology Solutions

A recent press release contained great news for aviation weather safety, but the text soto voce voiced some longer term worries.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA —Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP[1]) ) announced that the latest in their 25 years of research partnership have introduced a new tool for aviation- the Domestic Aviation Forecasting System (FAFS). What does this safety innovation provide for controllers, pilots, and flight planners:

DAFS is a national aviation weather forecast suite operated by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). It provides 3‑km‑resolution forecasts of the two most safety‑critical hazards in U.S. airspace:
In‑Flight Icing (IFI / FIP v2.0)
Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG v4.0)
These products cover both CONUS and Alaska, replacing older RAP‑based icing products and earlier turbulence algorithms.
- More accurate icing prediction using explicit liquid water content (LWC) instead of total water content (TWC).
- SLD (Supercooled Large Droplet) detection integrated into the model.
- Improved turbulence diagnostics, including:
Updated clear‑air turbulence (CAT) algorithms
Expanded mountain‑wave turbulence (MWT) detection
New convectively induced turbulence (CIT) parameter
Layer‑specific calibrations for PBL, troposphere, and stratosphere
Higher temporal resolution:
CONUS: hourly cycles, forecasts F001–F018
DAFS is a foundational building block for future in‑time aviation safety management (aligned with NASA’s SMS modernization work).
It supports trajectory‑based operations (TBO) by giving the FAA more granular hazard fields for dynamic rerouting.
It provides the hazard‑prediction backbone for UAS, AAM, and eVTOL corridor planning, especially in icing‑sensitive low‑altitude environments.

The quotes from NOAA forecasts some worries about future research—

“DAFS WAS DEVELOPED WITH FUNDING FROM THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION’s (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program
“…the heart of our aviation forecast mission: supporting passenger safety and the aviation industry…”
“…NOAA continuously works with the FAA to deliver the most accurate, timely and useful aviation forecasts,”…

Subtle, but worrisome words that are primarily in the past tense. Hints that future aviation weather research may not be in FY 2027 budget and beyond? Some recent reports seem to give some credence to this possible funding cuts—

It is clear now and for the future DAFS is safe because it is operational, but the research that feeds future improvements into DAFS and aviation‑climate science is squarely in the crosshairs. A list of programs likely to be in jeopardy-

Slower improvement of turbulence and convection models Reduced ability to forecast contrail‑forming regions
- Stalled progress on soot‑reduction and contrail‑avoidance strategies
- Weaker scientific basis for FAA, ICAO, and EU climate policy

Atmospheric chemistry research
Aerosol and cloud microphysics programs
Upper‑troposphere/lower‑stratosphere climate studies
Radiative forcing and non‑CO₂ climate impact research
University‑based cooperative institutes (CIRES, CIRA, AOML partnerships)

The Administration is asserting its policy perspectives, which they believe were reflected in their voters’ views on science. It is not worth debating the validity of those opinions, but the reality is that the European Union, the UK, Japan, and other potential markets are for BOEING sales.

Research into the actual effects of carbon emissions and contrails [2]IS REQUIRED to counter the efforts to create Emission Trading Schemes and the like! Consequently, the Administration should reconsider these cuts in that Boeing’s stance differs from the Trump Administration’s skepticism toward carbon regulation:

Boeing acknowledges aviation’s climate impact and advocates science‑based mitigation, not deregulation.
It supports CORSIA and Paris‑aligned voluntary frameworks, emphasizing innovation over taxation.
The company’s messaging centers on “decarbonization through technology,” not rejection of climate science.

Deleting these dollars may hurt Boeing’s overseas sales and hurt its stock. Maybe in the America First theme, the aviation weather research for these issues should be restored so that carbon emissions and contrail are decided in favor of Boeing’s future revenues.

NOAA improves aviation forecasts to bolster U.S. air travel efficiency, safety

Passengers, pilots, and crew: Get ready for greater peace of mind.

Starting in late March, a new NOAA weather forecast system will provide improved prediction of two aviation hazards that pose threats to flight safety and create anxiety among passengers: airplane icing and turbulence.

Covering the contiguous United States, the new Domestic Aviation Forecast System (DAFS) will generate more detailed forecasts of evolving icing and turbulence risks, giving pilots real-time intelligence about changing weather conditions along their flight path.

DAFS was developed with funding from the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program. The system is transitioning from development teams led by NOAA Research into operational use at NWS’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

“This is the culmination OF EXTENSIVE RESEARCH AND YEARS OF WORK that gets right to the heart of our aviation forecast mission: supporting passenger safety and the aviation industry,” said [Dr.]TERRA LADWIG[3], acting chief of NOAA Global Systems Laboratory’s (GSL) Assimilation, Verification, and Innovation Division.

“The DAFS is another example of how NOAA continuously works with the FAA to deliver the most accurate, timely and useful aviation forecasts,” said [Dr.]JOSHUA SCHECK[4], aviation support branch chief for NOAA’s Aviation Weather Center. “Improving prediction of turbulence and icing will strengthen NOAA’s ability to provide critical flight safety information to the FAA and the aviation community.”

NOAA National Weather Service meteorologists provide thousands of aviation weather forecasts each day. NOAA’s Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, Missouri, issues more than 300 additional aviation weather forecasts daily, along with 55,000 in-flight aviation weather warnings per year on average.(Image credit: Robert Hyatt/NOAA NWS)

To help the FAA generate flight paths that route planes around dangerous weather, National Weather Service’s 122 Weather Forecast Offices provide more than 3,000 regularly scheduled forecasts to approximately 700 airports daily. The NWS Aviation Weather Center (AWC) issues more than 300 additional aviation weather forecasts daily, along with 55,000 in-flight aviation weather warnings per year on average. The AWC also distributes nearly 12,000 automated aviation forecasts daily in a variety of formats as a Meteorological Watch Office.

New model builds on past success

The FAA and NOAA partnership has existed for over 25 YEARS, with early versions of the icing and turbulence algorithms evolving in step with next-generation NOAA weather forecast models.

The new aviation forecast system is based on NOAA’s most advanced operational regional forecast model, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, (HRRR), which was specifically designed to track rapidly evolving severe weather events.

The HRRR provides an updated forecast every hour on a 3-kilometer (1.8-mile) surface grid with 50 vertical slices through the atmosphere. What makes the HRRR unique is that it ingests three-dimensional radar data EVERY 15 MINUTES. This allows meteorologists to “see” ongoing precipitation and PREDICT THE FORMATION OF INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS – common causes of flight-level icing and turbulence – WITH SUPERIOR ACCURACY.

Previously, icing and turbulence guidance were generated from hourly updating numerical weather models on a coarser 13-kilometer (8-mile) surface grid. With DAFS, icing and turbulence forecast updates will be more precise.

“The enhanced horizontal and vertical resolution provides more detailed forecasts, which potentially gives pilots more options to navigate around hazards.” said Curtis Alexander, GSL’s deputy director.

NOAA AWC meteorologists and those embedded with the FAA’s 21 Air Route Traffic Control Centers will then create tailored aviation products, including aviation and airport-area forecasts that can be distributed by networks such as aviationweather.gov and aviationweather.gov/help/data/ for preflight and in-flight safety.

Improving the safety of air travel

Icing forecasts: One of DAFS’ tools provides ENHANCED FORECASTS OF IN-FLIGHT ICING PROBABILITY, SEVERITY, AND SUPERCOOLED LARGE DROPLET CONDITIONS for the contiguous U.S. plus Alaska. In-flight icing occurs when liquid water droplets at below freezing temperatures freeze on contact with the aircraft’s cold surface. Ice buildup can affect the performance and efficiency of propellers and rotors, stability and steering controls, radio antennas, air intakes and more, sometimes with deadly consequences. The risk is especially high in clouds containing supercooled large drops, which can pose a significant danger for some aircraft.

Turbulence forecasts: DAFS also improves prediction of several types of turbulence that can cause serious injuries to aircraft occupants and airframe damage, and require rerouting of flights. In addition to low-level turbulence, clear air turbulence and mountain wave turbulence, the updated algorithm also predicts turbulence within clouds ranging in size from small storms to large systems.

[1] Turbulence; In-flight; Convective weather; Ceiling and visibility (C&V);Advanced weather radar techniques; Weather prediction model development and enhancement; Space weather

[2] CONTRAILS a BIG GREEN + or unjustified COST – 2026-2027 TEST???; Can Civil Aviation decrease CONTRAILS now???; Scourge of CONTRAILs being attacked by EASA and FAA; SAF may be the solution to CONTRAILS; IATA’s STUDY of Contrails is MOST INSTRUCTIVE; ICAO’s fixation on CO2 Emissions need not delay Airlines’ immediate Contrail Reduction; 3 major CONTRAIL CO2 reduction studies are progressing; must gather info for regulatory approvals

[3] Ph.D., Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, August 2014;M.S., Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, August 2009B.S., Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, May 2007

[4] Harvard Kennedy School, Executive Education – Senior Executive Fellows Certificate , American Government and Politics (United States) 2017-2017; Saint Louis University Ph.D., Meteorology

2001 – 2004;Saint Louis University M.S., Meteorology 1999 – 2001,Northern Illinois University, B.S. in Geography, Major: Meteorology 1997-1999