IN RETROSPECT, blocking the Embraer-Boeing merger was PRESCIENT

A Brazilian federal court intervened in the proposed sale of Embraer to Boeing by granting an injunction in 2018 that blocked the deal The Brazilian government. This decision was later overturned by another judge. Finally, as the deal was close to closing, in 2019, then-President Michel Temer exercised the government’s veto power to prevent the transfer of control of Embraer to Boeing. The decision was based on concerns about national sovereignty and the strategic importance of Embraer to Brazil.

GOOD CALL BRAZIL.  

• October 29, 2018: Lion Air Flight 610, a Boeing 737 Max 8, crashes into the Java Sea shortly after takeoff from Jakarta, Indonesia, killing all 189 people on boardMarch 10, 2019:
• Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, another Boeing 737 Max 8, crashes after takeoff from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, killing all 157 passengers and crew members.
• March 2019: Following the second crash, regulators worldwide ground all Boeing 737 Max jets
• April 2019: Preliminary reports from Ethiopian officials indicate similarities between the two crashes, focusing on the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS).
• December 2020 After extensive investigations and software updates, the FAA lifts the grounding order on the 737 Max, allowing it to return to service.
• January 5, 2024: An incident involving a door plug on an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737-9 MAX led to the grounding of 171 Boeing 737-9 MAX aircraft by the FAA.
• January 2024: The FAA halted the expansion of Boeing’s 737 MAX production to improve quality control and ensure safety.
• February 2024: The FAA directed Boeing to develop a comprehensive action plan to address systemic safety and quality-control issues.
• March 2024: The FAA concluded an audit of Boeing’s production line, identifying non-compliance issues in manufacturing processes.
• May 2024: Boeing submitted a corrective action plan to the FAA, which included strengthening its Safety Management System and enhancing supplier oversight.
• September 13, 2024: About 33,000 Boeing workers went on strike, further halting production.
• November 2024: The strike ended after workers agreed to a new contract, and Boeing began the process of resuming production.
• December 2024: Boeing restarted production of its 737 MAX and other aircraft programs after addressing potential issues and ensuring a safe and orderly restart.

Not surprisingly, after that Boeing reported a SUBSTANTIAL NET LOSS AND NEGATIVE CASH FLOW, reflecting ongoing struggles. The corporation has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” based on ratings from 23 Wall Street analysts. Out of these, one analyst has given a sell rating, eight have given a hold rating, 13 have given a buy rating, and one has given a strong buy rating. Overall, analysts are CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC about Boeing’s growth prospects, with expectations of increased earnings and revenue in the coming years.

So how is the smaller Brazilian company, whose President blocked its sale to Boeing, is faring without that partner??? A few examples:

Why Embraer’s C-390 Millennium’s star is on the rise

a recent surge in sales momentum, with six customers confirming orders for an estimated 19 aircraft in 2024, with some slated for delivery in 2025.

Embraer Delivers Over 40 Private Jets In The Fourth-Quarter Of 2024

Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer confirmed it delivered 206 AIRCRAFT in 2024, 75 of which took place in the fourth quarter. The aircraft were split between Embraer’s commercial and private jet lineups and three models of its C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft…

The manufacturer’s 75 aircraft deliveries in the final quarter of 2024 marked an increase of 27% over the previous quarter, when 59 aircraft were delivered, and matched the volume of the same period of 2023. For the entire year, the 206 aircraft delivered in 2024 improved 14% on the 181 recorded deliveries in 2023.

Aircraft Production five years since the Pandemic – an uneven recovery persists
        ~ While Boeing, Airbus and ATR have not exceeded their pre-2016    sales, Embraer has exceeded its pre-Pandemic sales

In contrast to the Boeing numbers, off a smaller scale, Wall Street analysts have a GENERALLY POSITIVE OUTLOOK for Embraer. Analysts project that Embraer will announce quarterly earnings of $0.28 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 55.6% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $1.62 billion, increasing 26.3% from the same quarter last year. Overall, analysts are optimistic about Embraer’s growth prospects, with expectations of increased earnings and revenue in the coming quarters.

MINNOW SWALLOWS WHALE???