AAM market + on macro level; cutting through the smoke on micro
The gurus of Wall Street, as reported below, are growing in their attraction to the advanced air mobility (AAM) market. Analysts are quoted as seeing this innovative means of air travel being “driven by technological advancements, an increasingly clear regulatory path and the clear need to overcome environmental and sustainability challenges presented by growing urbanisation and traffic congestion.”
This report focuses on the MACRO AAM future and does not assess the specific developers in this rush to operations. This is not a helpful observation unless some financial institution establishes a basket of eVTOL developers. An investor, individual or company, must be able to compare the proposed aircrafts of Company A v. of Company J ,hypothetically, before buying.
Anyone, with a google search on AAM or eVTOL has received hundreds of news reports, a/k/a OEM press releases and has learned of every incremental advance in this competition. All of them are well written and flagging what is being described as great competitive advances of the company being highlighted. This phenomenon is a common tactic in the search for seed capital. This “smoke” does not violate the SEC rules, and the carefully worded ambiguous text requires experienced interpreters of FAA speak to divine their hidden meeting. What these “advertisements” do not herald is an FAA approval of Type Certification data.
Those are the milestones that truly measure the likelihood of the aircraft airworthiness determination. This path is fraught with a number of challenges for the FAA and for the TC applicant. The determination of whether an aerial vehicle is safe to operate, a function for which there is little historical data, is especially difficult as to AAMs for a number of reasons. That means that the agency must devise tests which the applicant must perform, and the company must offer potential products that comply with regulatory requirements as well as meet with aircraft’s unique performance necessities.
With AAMs, the set of new ground (air?) to be covered include:
- New energy sources: hydrogen, lithium ion batteries, hybrid… or something else?
- Tilt-rotor, a lift/thrust mechanism, transitions from vertical to horizontal, has operational history, but the V-22 Osprey has exhibited some significant problems.
- Navigation systems/avionics probably a lesser challenge initially, but likely will lead to autonomous controls (needed to reduce crew costs).
- ATM—this infrastructure will be required to provide separation between and among the AAMs in likely environment dense with AAMs.
- Vertiports will have to be established. Energy (electrical or hydrogen) essential to flight. These “terminals” will have to be designed to handle passengers safely.
- Environmental reviews both nationally and locally will precede first revenue flights.
- Federal preemption v. Devolution—where is the dividing line between the national and local rules? Trump 1 talked a lot about moving authority away from Washington to the communities. AAM may be a most attractive battleground for this significant political science debate.
The public information about these indicia of progress probably be limited. The proprietary nature of the development of these technologies will limit their disclosure. READING OF THE FEW TEA LEAVES THAT ARE SEEN IN THE PUBLIC TEA CUPS WILL REQUIRE SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTS TO INTERPRET THEIR SIGNIFICANCE.
AAM is becoming ‘increasingly attractive’ market to invest in
03rd Dec 2024, 09:19.
Written by William Hallowell
A global study has found that 86 PER CENT OF FUND MANAGERS plan to invest in advanced air mobility (AAM) over the next three years.
Canadian eVTOL developer Horizon Aircraft commissioned a survey of 100 small and micro-cap fund managers across the US, Canada, Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
100 per cent of respondents agreed that the AAM industry is “becoming an increasingly more attractive market to invest in”, according to Horizon.
Meanwhile 39 per cent of those surveyed said they will either be investing for the first time or plan to increase their current level of investment in advanced air mobility.
A further 47 per cent revealed they will maintain their current level of investment in the sector, which Horizon said is experiencing “rapid technological development” – particularly in eVTOL aircraft and battery technologies.
The company added that the industry’s attractiveness “has been underlined by JOBY AVIATION”, which has been bolstered recently by a $500mn investment from Toyota and a $202mn equity raise.
Horizon Aircraft CEO Brandon Robinson said: “It is clear that fund managers recognise the potential that can be realised from investing in the advanced air mobility sector.
“The market is poised for substantial growth, which is being driven by technological advancements, an increasingly clear regulatory path and the clear need to overcome environmental and sustainability challenges presented by growing urbanisation and traffic congestion.”
Horizon is developing one of the world’s first hybrid eVTOLs – the Cavorite X7 – that is able to fly most of its mission exactly like a normal aircraft while offering “industry-leading speed, range and operational utility”.
The company added that its “unique designs put the mission first” while prioritising safety, performance and utility.
The Cavorite X7 is still in the test phase – but the company said it hopes to quickly certify the model and bring it to market to develop early use cases for eVTOLs.
