SHARE: Quantitative Analogy provides Aviation with a great example of SAFETY
Below is a superb article by an expert in data analytics who starts his subject by observing his impression of aviation safety is driven by SENSATIONAL MEDIA REPORTS about airline crashes—such as these:
Max Roser, the founder of Data Global and author of this insightful comments on the state of airline safety, by commenting as a common observer: he follows
What is much harder to notice is the opposite: the absence of plane crashes.
He follows that intuitive statement by lifting a long assessment by one of the Competitive Enterprise Institution, succinctly summarized by this line:
“US airline customers traveled 13.3 trillion passenger miles since then [2009]…
“13.3 trillion miles is a lot! It’s equivalent to 535 million trips around the Earth or 28 million visits to the moon and back.2
“It is such a long distance that it is not unreasonable to measure it in light-years. One light-year is the distance light travels over one year — 5.9 trillion miles. So, the total distance traveled without a crash equals 2.3 light-years.3”
It would not be ideal for aviation concerns to issue daily press releases, “NO ACCIDENTS TODAY.” At the same time, our business has a high media profile. Seemingly meaningless events, i.e. a toilet overflowing[1], are posted prominently by the media. The reader interest is so strong that the lifecycle of any incident seems to extend and does so with repetition of past facts!!
The great benefit of the below CEI report and the authoritative MIT study (dot 4 on this list) is that they are produced by expert, independent authorities. They provide accurate material to share with the media. They have greater credibility with the public than trade association releases or even government studies. Even jaundiced journalists have to respect their opinions.
- Aviation Safety Culture works, and Media Bias distorts the record
- Suggestions on tools to enhance Safety Awareness – JDA Journal
- IATA’s 2023 Safety Report- good news
- MIT quantitative study PROVES that THE SKY is not FALLING – JDA Journal
These words are intended to motivate aviation entities, PARTICULARLY THE COMMUNICATIONS OFFICES, to share these sources of positive information with their media contacts. We all can benefit from sharing these more positive markers of aviation safety.
US airlines have transported passengers for more than two light-years since the last plane crash
Sometimes, the most important news is when something isn’t happening.
By: Max Roser
December 01, 2024
When an airplane crashes, we all hear about it. Large crashes are major news events, with shocking pictures repeated endlessly across our television screens.
What is much harder to notice is the opposite: the absence of plane crashes.
A post on X by RYAN RADIA made me aware of just how rare plane crashes have become in the United States. In response, I looked up the relevant data and wrote this brief article to bring it to our attention.
The title gives away just how incredibly safe US airlines have become.
THE LAST TIME A US AIRLINE CRASHED WAS ON FEBRUARY 12, 2009, IN NEW YORK STATE. FIFTY PEOPLE DIED.1
Private jets, smaller planes, and helicopters have crashed more frequently, but this article is about the safety of the regularly scheduled flights of commercial airlines that most people travel with (flights regulated as “Part 121”-travel in the US).
How far have US airlines carried passengers since February 2009? According to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, US airline customers traveled 13.3 trillion passenger miles since then. “Passenger miles” are a straightforward way to account for both the number of passengers and the distance they travel. A single passenger mile represents one person traveling one mile. So, five people traveling ten miles would sum to 50 passenger miles.
13.3 trillion miles is a lot! It’s equivalent to 535 million trips around the Earth or 28 million visits to the moon and back.2
It is such a long distance that it is not unreasonable to measure it in light-years. One light-year is the distance light travels over one year — 5.9 trillion miles. So, the total distance traveled without a crash equals 2.3 light-years.3
It is hard to visualize this vast distance. In the chart, I’ve compared it with Earth’s distance from the sun. The distance passengers traveled on US airlines without a plane crash is 143,208 times further than the distance between the Earth and the Sun. So, if the distance between the Earth and the Sun is represented by a line of the length of 10cm, then the 2.3 light-years would be represented by a distance of 14.3 kilometers.4
It shows me how hard it is to notice the absence of something. I WAS NOT AWARE THAT NO US AIRLINE HAD CRASHED IN THE PAST 15 YEARS. AND I DIDN’T REALIZE WHAT AN INCREDIBLE SAFETY RECORD THIS REPRESENTS, GIVEN HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE BOARDING FLIGHTS EVERY DAY.
More importantly, this shows us how very safe we can make technologies if we want to.
One key reason for the safety improvement in the US airline industry was the open sharing of data. US airlines started to openly share information about all incidents that risked passenger safety with each other. This made it possible for everyone to learn from the aggregate of all incidents rather than just the incidents each airline encountered themselves.5
Because safety has been made such a clear priority, flying is now extraordinarily safe.
Acknowledgments: Thanks to Hannah Ritchie, Simon van Teutem, and Angela Wenham for their helpful feedback.
1. **United 737 Toilet Floods**: On October 9th, 2024, a United Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 8 experienced an overflowing toilet during a flight from Charleston, SC to Denver, CO. The incident resulted in a passenger’s $1,200 laptop being destroyed by water damage. United Airlines offered the passenger 5,000 MileagePlus points as compensation, which the passenger felt was insufficient. United 737 Toilet Floods, Leaving Passenger with Destroyed $1,200 Laptop and Only a 5,000 Mile Compensation Offer – AeroXplorer.com
