Flares pose Safety risks; all need to broaden our attention to potential problems
Last Fall, as described in the below Safe Fly Aviation investigation, a JetBlue flight B6-1174 (Airbus A320-232, registration N946JB) was cruising at FL350 over the western Atlantic when a POWERFUL GEOMAGNETIC STORM — TRIGGERED BY AN X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE TWO DAYS EARLIER — was bombarded the aircraft with high-energy protons. While Airbus is quickly working to install radiation-hardened software, this hazard, although in its 25th cycle, is now FRONT OF MINE. Based on AI research[1], here are some useful information about this phenomenon.
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are bursts of electromagnetic radiation and charged particles from the Sun. They can disrupt Earth’s upper atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetic field, which in turn affects aviation systems and spacecraft. Solar flares can degrade or temporarily disable:
- GPS/GNSS signals (loss of lock, increased noise, position errors)
- HF radio communications, especially on polar and oceanic routes
- Instrument approach procedures that rely on GNSS, forcing pilots to revert to less efficient but safe alternatives
High‑energy particles from solar storms can strike microchips and cause:
- Bit flips (0→1 or 1→0)
- Transient data corruption
- Spurious warnings or display malfunctions
- Autopilot disconnects
These disruptions can last minutes to hours depending on flare intensity.
During the current Solar Cycle 25 peak (2024–2025), the frequency and intensity of these events have increased, raising operational challenges for aviation and spaceflight. According to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, Cycle 25 has not yet ended and continues to progress through its active phase. Most forecasts indicate that Cycle 25 peaked in 2024 (sunspot maximum), but the decline phase typically lasts several years. Solar cycles do not end abruptly—they taper off as sunspot numbers decrease toward the next minimum.
Solar Cycle 26 is expected to begin sometime between January 2029 and December 2032. This range reflects the uncertainty inherent in predicting the timing of the next solar minimum, which marks the transition between cycles.
An important point for flight planners during a flare cycle, these are important factors in setting you routes
- Polar routes are most exposed because Earth’s magnetic shielding is weakest at high latitudes.
- Higher cruise altitudes (30,000–40,000 ft) experience greater particle flux.
There are technical aviation mitigations that should be initiated soon, if not already completed:
- Triple‑redundant flight computers
- Error‑correcting memory (ECC)
- Radiation‑tolerant chip design[2]
- Cross‑checking between sensors
- Airworthiness directives and software patches
- Space‑weather advisories and real‑time monitoring
While we have relied heavily on past experiences, those responsible for aviation safety must also be perspicacious. Solar flares now move to a more elevated status on aviation’s risk list. It is very easy to fall into a fairly narrow perspective, but it would be wise to be open to a number of scientific, engineering and other technical journals. SMS is becoming a standard for managing safety in many industries outside aviation; the FAA has noted that “similar management systems are used in the management of other critical areas such as quality, occupational safety and health, security, environment,[3] etc.”
BREAKING: Airbus A320 Solar Flare Crisis Forces 5,900+ Jets Offline | Safe Fly Aviation
by Safe Fly Aviation
Exclusive Safe Fly Aviation investigation reveals how cosmic radiation and outdated flight-control software triggered the largest single-model grounding since Boeing 737 MAX
Safe Fly Aviation Exclusive Report
29 November 2025
LIVE UPDATES
Key Facts at a Glance
- Aircraft Affected:5,900–6,200 Airbus A320ceo and A320neo variants
- Root Cause:ELAC L104 software vulnerability to solar particle radiation
- Trigger Event:JetBlue Flight B6-1174 incident on 30 October 2025
- Casualties:Zero fatalities; 15 passengers injured (non-critical)
- Estimated Cost:$1.1–$1.4 billion fleet-wide + $2.4–$3.1 billion revenue loss
Latest Update: EASA and FAA jointly confirm software rollback approved for 4,900 aircraft. Hardware shield installations begin 2 December. IndiGo Airlines reports 68% of fleet grounded as of 18:00 UTC.
A perfect storm of COSMIC RADIATION AND OUTDATED FLIGHT-CONTROL CODE has triggered the largest single-model grounding event since the Boeing 737 MAX crisis. Airbus confirmed late Thursday that a software vulnerability in the Elevator Aileron Computer (ELAC) of approximately 5,900–6,200 A320ceo and A320neo aircraft can be corrupted by extreme solar particle events, potentially causing an uncommanded nose-down pitch.
Unlike the MAX groundings, which followed two fatal crashes, this directive is pre-emptive: only one incident has occurred, and no one died. Yet the timing — days before the December holiday peak — has already wiped out thousands of flights and threatens to strand millions.
What Actually Happened: The JetBlue Flight That Changed Everything
JetBlue Flight B6-1174 Incident
On 30 October 2025, JetBlue flight B6-1174 (Airbus A320-232, registration N946JB) was cruising at FL350 over the western Atlantic when a POWERFUL GEOMAGNETIC STORM — TRIGGERED BY AN X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE TWO DAYS EARLIER — bombarded the aircraft with high-energy protons.
Sequence of Events
- 14:22:00 UTC:Both ELAC units simultaneously receive corrupted angle-of-attack data
- 14:22:02 UTC:Flight control law interprets data as imminent stall
- 14:22:03 UTC:System commands sharp 2.1° nose-down elevator deflection
- 14:22:07 UTC:Aircraft descends 190 feet in under 4 seconds
- 14:22:08 UTC:Crew disconnects autopilot and recovers control
- 15:47 UTC:Emergency landing in Tampa (TPA) — 15 passengers require medical attention
Investigators later discovered the root cause: a 2019 software load (ELAC L104) lacked the radiation-mitigation filters that were silently added to later versions (L110 and above) after similar — but undisclosed — events on two Asian carriers in 2021 and 2023.
Technical Analysis
The ELAC system uses 90nm silicon-on-insulator (SOI) processors, which are vulnerable to single-event upsets (SEUs) when struck by high-energy particles. At cruising altitude, cosmic-ray flux can be 300× higher than at sea level, and a direct hit by a solar proton event can flip bits in unprotected memory — exactly what happened on the JetBlue flight.
“This is a textbook case of legacy code meeting 21st-century space weather. The radiation environment at altitude has changed dramatically since 2019, but critical software wasn’t updated to match.”
— Dr. Sarah Chen, Aviation Safety Systems Expert
Scope of the Grounding: By the Numbers
| Global A320 Family Fleet Status (November 2025) | |||||
| Variant | Total in Service | Affected by L104 Software | Software Rollback Only | Require New Shielded ELAC | |
| A320ceo | 6,840 | 3,910 | 3,300 | 610 | |
| A320neo (PW & CFM) | 4,460 | 2,010 | 1,600 | 410 | |
| A319 / A321 (all) | Included above | ~1,200 combined | — | — | |
| GLOBAL TOTAL | 11,300+ | 5,920–6,200 | ~4,900 | ~1,020–1,300 | |
Source: Airbus Fleet Database, Cirium Ascend, EASA Airworthiness Directive 2025-0228E
Airline Impact Heat-Map
Live data as of 29 November 2025, 18:00 UTC
| Rank | Airline | Country | A320 Family Fleet | % Grounded Today | Flights Cancelled (Past 24h) | |
| 1 | IndiGo | India | 360 | 68% | 412 | |
| 2 | American Airlines | USA | 486 | 41% | 287 | |
| 3 | easyJet | UK/Europe | 357 | 74% | 310 | |
| 4 | China Eastern | China | 390 | 22%* | 180 | |
| 5 | Delta Air Lines | USA | 200 | 55% | 168 | |
| 6 | JetBlue | USA | 130 | 92% | 142 | |
| 7 | LATAM Airlines | Chile/Brazil | 182 | 61% | 198 | |
| 8 | Wizz Air | Hungary | 188 | 81% | 224 | |
| 9 | Spirit Airlines | USA | 205 | 59% | 134 | |
| 10 | Vistara (now Air India) | India | 70 | 70% | 88 | |
*China Eastern operating reduced schedule due to separate domestic restrictions
Financial Hit: Early Estimates
Economic Impact Analysis
Direct modification cost per aircraft:$80,000 – $420,000
Total fleet-wide cost to airlines:$1.1 – $1.4 billion
Revenue loss from cancellations (first 14 days):$2.4 – $3.1 billion
Share Price Reaction (24 hours post-announcement)
- easyJet: –11.4%
- Spirit Airlines: –9.8%
- IndiGo: –7.2%
- American Airlines: –4.1%
Source: OAG Aviation Worldwide, Cirium Analytics, Bloomberg Terminal data
The Space-Weather Wake-Up Call
Solar Cycle 25 is proving far more violent than predicted. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Centre recorded 27 X-class flares in 2025 alone — the highest since 2003. At cruising altitude, cosmic-ray flux can be 300× higher than at sea level, and a direct hit by a solar proton event can flip bits in unprotected memory — exactly what happened on the JetBlue flight.
Solar Activity Context
- X-class flares in 2025: 27 events (highest since 2003)
- Cosmic-ray flux at FL350: 300× higher than sea level
- Solar Cycle 25 peak: Expected mid-2025 (we’re here now)
- Previous major aviation impact: 1989 Quebec blackout grounded flights
Airbus has quietly begun certifying fully radiation-hardened ELAC 2 units (using 22nm silicon and triple modular redundancy) for delivery from March 2026. In the meantime, the fix for 80% of the fleet is simply to roll back to the 2017 L98 software — a solution engineers call “embarrassingly effective.”
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Crisis Timeline: Key Events
28 October 2025
X3.2-class solar flare erupts from sunspot region AR3497, launching coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth
30 October 2025, 14:22 UTC
JetBlue Flight B6-1174 incident — First documented ELAC corruption event; emergency landing in Tampa
7 November 2025
Airbus internal investigation identifies ELAC L104 software vulnerability to solar particle events
19 November 2025
EASA issues preliminary safety bulletin (SB A320-27-1834) recommending software checks
27 November 2025
Full Airworthiness Directive released (EASA AD 2025-0228E, FAA AD 2025-24-08) — Mandatory grounding for affected aircraft
29 November 2025, 18:00 UTC
Current status: 68% of IndiGo fleet grounded; software rollback approvals accelerating; hardware shield production begins 2 December
Expert Commentary
“This is aviation’s first real confrontation with the new space-weather reality. Solar Cycle 25 is teaching us that flight systems designed in the 2010s are not hardened for the radiation environment we face today. THE GOOD NEWS? THIS WAS CAUGHT BEFORE A TRAGEDY. THE BAD NEWS? IT REVEALS SYSTEMIC GAPS IN OUR CERTIFICATION PROCESSES.”
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— Captain John Ellis, Former FAA Chief Test Pilot
What Happens Next?
Expected Resolution Timeline
- 2–5 December 2025: Software rollback approvals accelerate; first 1,200 aircraft return to service
- 6–10 December 2025: 95% of fleet back online with L98 software (pre-holiday rush)
- January–March 2026: Phased installation of radiation-hardened ELAC 2 hardware
- June 2026: All affected aircraft upgraded; L110+ software reinstated with full protection
The skies will normalise — most analysts predict 95% of the fleet back online by December 8–10. Until then, the world’s favourite narrowbody is getting an urgent lesson from the Sun itself: even 35,000 feet isn’t far enough to escape space weather.
This article is based on publicly available information from EASA, FAA, Airbus, airline statements, and independent aviation safety databases. Safe Fly Aviation provides analysis for informational purposes only.
[1] NWS NOAA Solar Cycle Progression; Solar Cycle Progression | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center;
Progression of solar cycle 25; Airbus Certificates | Airbus; Why the Sun Is Disrupting Global Air Travel; NAV CANADA How Space Weather and Solar Storms Impact Aviation; Explainer: How Intense Solar Radiation Can Impact Modern Aircraft – Waatea News: Māori Radio Station; Image: Strong solar flare; Why the Sun Is Disrupting Global Air Travel
[2] Radiation Hardened IC Design and Evaluation Flow
[3] ISO 45001 — Occupational Health & Safety Management Systems; ISO 14001 — Environmental Management Systems; ISO 27001 — Information Security Management Systems; ISO 9001 — Quality Management Systems“Human Error” — James Reason; “Drift Into Failure” and “The Field Guide to Understanding ‘Human Error’— Sidney Dekker; ISM Code — International Safety Management Code
IAEA Safety Standards-GSR Part 2 — Leadership and Management for Safety;SSG‑3 — Development and Application of Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment; INSAG‑4 — Safety Culture
