Below is THE DEFINITIVE, independent, technical, financial and other factors report on the readiness of eVTOL aerial vehicles. SMG Consulting has, for 2 years, tracked the progress of 28 potential EVTOL manufacturers. It concludes that Joby Aviation is closest to producing an airworthy UAM. It predicts that among others, Airbus may have a certificated aircraft by 2024.
That year is most significant BECAUSE the Paris 2024 Olympics organizing committee has POINTED TO THESE AIRCRAFTS AS A POSSIBLE SOLUTION to their transportation needs. Anyone, who has attended the Paris Airshow and has sat in taxis in gridlock to/from Le Bourget, knows the French Capital’s road infrastructure is taxed by a smaller volume of visitors with a single destination focus.
Le problème:
Paris 2024 will host ~800,000 spectators attending 329 events, in 32 sports, at 41 competition sites (Paris and 16 other cities). over 19 days, beginning in 10 months and 18 days from today!!!
That logistical morass will try men’s (and women’s souls).
The 2024 Paris Olympics organization has not officially selected an eVTOL to fly during the games, but there are some plans and possibilities for eVTOL flights to take place. For example:
- Volocopter, a German eVTOL manufacturer, said it plans to have an operating air taxi service in Paris in time for the 2024 Olympic Games with its
- AutoFlight, a Chinese eVTOL developer, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Groupe ADP, a Paris airports operator, to conduct experimental piloted flights with its Prosperity I aircraft from the Pontoise Vertiport during the 2024 Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games
- Groupe ADP has also outlined plans to have five vertiports where passengers can board eVTOLs during the games, including facilities at Charles de Gaulle and Le Bourget airports, the existing heliport at Issy-les-Moulineaux, St Cyr close to Versailles, and a new-build vertiport on a barge on the Seine River next to the existing Gare d’Austerlitz train station.
The press reports are quite positive about the prospects of these aerial vehicles providing a viable transportation system in 10 months
- The Volocopter 2X eVTOL Is Training for the Paris 2024 Olympics – Robb Report
- AutoFlight Plans Experimental eVTOL Flights For Paris Olympics Next Year (simpleflying.com)
- Volocopter’s VoloCity Flying Taxi Will Welcome the 2024 Paris Olympics | Specs and Details | Tech Times
- Skyports Developing Test eVTOL Vertiport in Paris for 2024 Olympics
- Quiet Flights Will be Key to eVTOL Aircraft Victory at 2024 Paris Olympic Games | FutureFlight
It is important to note that the SMG AAM Reality Index predicts when these eVTOLs MAY be found airworthy. Assuming that such a stretch goal is met, EASA will also have to determine the competence of flying brand new aircraft by pilots without significant experience in EVTOLs over Paris. The above authors mention the need for ground infrastructure, but failed to recognize that EUROCONTROL will be challenged to control traffic, likely dense and high volume, in airspace to be defined!!!
As much of a logistics disaster would occur if these eVTOL aircraft, the eVTOL operators, the eVTOL ground infrastructure and the eVTOL airspace are not available by July 2024, the future of this promising aviation format could be destroyed by a crash during these Olympics. The visibility of such a potential tragedy would be immense. Such a notable event will draw massive criticism from the media. These will be piloted; a crash with crew will defeat or delay autonomous operation of these potential alleviation of urban vehicular traffic.
Those of us of a certain age will remember the 1972 Everglades crash of an L-1011 TriStar Eastern Air Lines Flight 401, which was an L-1011 TriStar. The crash of Flight 401 had a significant impact on the aviation industry, especially on the sales of the L-1011 TriStar. A similar event by a Volocopter OR a Prosperity I aircraft could have long-lasting consequences to this nascent means of air transportation.
EASA must meet its safety obligation without regard to its impact on the Olympics mobility.
Joby Aviation has the most promising eVTOL project, according to ranking
September 9, 2023
Developed by SMG Consulting, the Advanced Air Mobility Reality Index [started 2020] tracks the evolution of electric aircraft projects on a monthly basis
Scheduled to enter in 2025, the eVTOL from start-up Joby Aviation is considered the most promising in the Urban Air Mobility market, according to the Advanced Air Mobility Reality Index (AAM Reality Index), from SMG Consulting.
The ranking, which analyzes various aspects of the development of electric aircraft, is updated monthly by the company and gives Joby a score of 8.7 out of a possible 10.
According to the criteria, to achieve a score of 10, an aircraft must be in series production with a volume of thousands of units, a stage that is still far from the reality of the new sector.
Joby Aviation eVTOL
Joby is closely followed by Beta Technologies, Volocopter and Archer (see ranking below).
According to SMG, “the ARI is based on five elements: the funding received by the company, the team that leads the company, the technology readiness of their vehicles, the certification progress of their vehicles, and the production readiness towards full scale manufacturing.”
AAM Reality Index (SMG)
Eve leads in orders
Among so many start-ups from different countries, large aircraft manufacturers appear in a discreet position in the index.
Boeing, through Wisk, has an index of 7.8, but there is no known forecast for entry into service.Airbus, in turn, has an index of 6.5 and plans to carry out the inaugural flight of its aircraft in 2024.
Embraer, through its subsidiary Eve, comes in 8th position, with 7.2 points, alongside AutoFlight and Pipistrel (Textron). The Brazilian company, however, is the one with the most orders for eVTOLs: there are, so far, 2,850 orders.
The second place in the ranking {of orders}, the British Vertical Aerospace, has exactly of Eve’s orders: 1,425 orders for the VX4 model.
eVTOLs orders (SMG)
In third place comes the Chinese company EHang, which has 1,256 orders for the 216, a small eVTOL for just two occupants.
The order numbers presented in the AAM Reality Index consider firm orders, letters of intent to purchase, purchase options and commercialization of flight hours (SMG considers one aircraft for every 1,000 flight hours per year).
For manufacturers, the most interesting point is the firm order, which is when the sale of the product to the customer is confirmed.
Eve eVTOL (Embraer)
In the clash between Eve and Vertical Aerospace, the second company has an advantage with 75 firm orders for eVTOLs, while Embraer’s affiliate is still at zero in this regard.
Instead, the Brazilian company has several agreements on purchase intentions, options and sales of flight hours. In agreements like this, customers make refundable deposits to enter a delivery queue and subsequently confirm (or not) the acquisition of the aircraft.
SMG claims that its index aims to show the real commitment of a company to deliver a product to the market. “It is not meant as an endorsement or a criticism of any specific company, but as a simple, easy-to-use guide to the complexities of the AAM industry,” explained the consultancy on its website.
