2019—views of the year to come

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Annual Attempt to see Over the Time Horizon

If a thousand monkeys at a thousand keyboards could write Shakespeare eventually…?

Our Panel of Experts, LT 1,000, try to predict what might happen next year

Every year the Journal has the audacity to TRY to  foresee the future at the beginning of the year. Here are a few of the flawed past:

There was more to 2015 than the Administrator’s review of the FAA’s year

 

Aviation Safety Prognosis for 2016

 

17 Prognoses for 2017

 

SCORECARD On 17 Prognoses For 2017

 

The Press reviews past and future of Aviation- the Prognosis is only limited by Attention to Safety

 

From a panel of clairvoyant aviation savants here are a few prognoses for 2019:

2019 Aviation Predictions

 

  • An Administrator will be nominated—late in the year so as to extend the nominee’s 5 year term as long as possible [too much credit to the Trump Administration?]
  • The 1st new Part 23 certificate will be issued

 

 

 

 

 

  • ADS-B Deadline is extended

 

  • EU will issue some form of environmental initiative, something like ETS
  • An inventor will file a patent for a UAS transponder which identifies its owner to an instrument on the ground
  • Some random event (akin to the Gatwick drone) will occur in the autonomous flying car sphere will quell the enthusiasm (investors, FAA, large companies) for a quick introduction of this aviation innovation
  • There will be no action on FAA ATC Reform
  • There will be IG and GAO criticisms of FAA followed by Congressional hearings

 

 

 

 

  • FAA will reorganize again maybe more than once
  • Illegal Part 135 operators will be detected by FAA and NATA efforts.

  • Creation of a lessons learned Safety Management System (SMS) data sharing program will be implemented to proactively curtail incidents and accidents.
  • The UK will leave the EU without a comprehensive deal but the Commission will agree to complementary provisions to keep air transport rights effective for a short period. The UK will be successful in negotiating rights to maintain the status quo.

 

  • The UK will accept a lesser role in EUROCONTROL but will ensure that the ICAO regional office activities provides them a voice in the overall air navigation system in Europe.
  • The UK will come to an agreement with EASA that ensures their safety services for a designated period (five years?) while the UK rebuilds its own safety organization.
  • The wreckage of Malaysia Flight 370 will be found
  • The FAA will publish risk-based criteria for UAS type certification

 

Your predictions would be welcome

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

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