SCORECARD on 17 Prognoses for 2017

2017 PROGNOSES +/-
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Our 2017 Prognoses ReExamined

 Were We Right About 2017?

Well, there were enough caveats included in the 2017 prognoses to earn a passing grade. Frankly, the irrationality which seemed to dominate all of Washington was well beyond any forecast for the last year.

The 2017 list of 17 included some “hope for’s”, “want-to-have’s” and cheerleading. Not good elements when you are trying to be a savant,

Self-assessment: C+


Last year’s list with markings:

Key
ORANGE   = Correct
PURPLE  = Incorrect
FUSCHIA  = Unclear

and NOTATIONS


2017 List of 17 Prognoses

Aviation safety tracks do not move in straight lines. There are no macro variables of exogenous factors from which one can honestly forecast the future. In a policy environment affected by politics, the change in Administrations assures that all regulatory trends are likely subject to a sudden major warp. The 2017 occupancy changes to 1600 Pennsylvania, 1200 New Jersey Ave. and 800 Independence (see below) will likely distort the input sources for major aviation pronouncements.

CARNACGiven those caveats, the below are not predictions or forecasts, but are intended to be the 17 prognoses drawn from Carnac the Magnificent’s Turban for Aviation Safety in 2017

 

 

 

  1.  Part 23 implementation will be further delayed beyond the 8 months announced in the final rule; stated excuse = difficulty in getting field trained; real reason= ACOs revolts NOTE: to avoid the revolt, AIR reorganized; that’s not yet 100% implemented
  2. Problems in implementing the CO2 ICAO agreement from both ends of the spectrum: EU will try to implement another ETS scheme ACTION and some of the poorer countries will not move towards the goals based on the costs of the new aircraft. CORSIA
  3. Chairman Shuster will introduce another ATC privatization bill; the Senate will not pass it; late in 2017, a consortium of IBM, Boeing, AT&T, SAIC, etc. will offer to buy the system; that process will start in 2017.
  4. Part 107 waivers will become the norm of UAS operations. A major accident will occur with an outcry for greater regulation, until the NTSB investigates finding irresponsible pilot error thus quelling the riot.
  5. UTM will be implemented in a state (New York?) as a test case.NOTE: The Administration initiated a number of devolution experiments.} the ATC privatization team (see #3) will be the major impetus for the UTM.
  6. In response to the NextGen ATC local implementation debacle, Congress will enact a bill which create a retroactive review process and fund 3rd party assistance for the communities in trying to find practical, reasonable, safe, efficient and environmentally sound alternatives acceptable to the FAA. {NOTE: The Court of Appeals decision in the Phoenix case sent a message to the FAA to get its act together. It appears that the agency got the message.}
  7. The FAA Noise study will lower the standards to 55 DNL for its review of impacts and house sound insulation. NOTE: The study was started, but with the concentration of noise due to RNP,
  8. new metrics should be considered.ADS-b in/out becomes available at commercially attractive prices. The GA community becomes supportive
  9. DoT Secretary Chao orders Administrator Huerta to investigate whether Ireland can adequately surveil Norwegian’s multi-country operation FROM A SAFETY BASIS.
  1. The review of the Irish Aviation Authorities finds significant deficiencies and the former Secretary of Labor receives kudos from ALPA, she issues a similar order of investigation to the new FAA Administrator (see #14) to determine whether the Arab Countries are really providing the required level of safety oversight for its(the singular pronoun is intended) carriers. The unions and Open & Fair Skies are ecstatic.
  2. FAA will approve an Organization Designation Authorization to qualified firms for certifying new Part 135 operators seeking a single pilot or single pilot in command certificates.
  3. A large number of FAA FSDO personnel will take early retirement; exit interviews will find that their departure was driven by the new Compliance v. Enforcement Policy. Creates a new generation of POIs, PMIs, etc.
  4. SMS will be recognized by the National Safety Council, ICAO and the Flight Safety Foundation as having resulted in the greatest (even beyond expectations) reduction of accidents/incidents over a 10-year period in US Aviation history. TIME magazine and President Trump will highlight this achievement. {NOTE: true, but not recognized.}
  5. Administrator Huerta will retain his position as protected by his statutory 5-year term UNTIL the chief pilot for the Trump plane is named the Deputy Administrator (note: the pilot of a previous Presidential candidate/President was named ADA-1) {NOTE: Dan Elwell, highly qualified, has served well as Deputy.NO ADMINISTRATOR CANDIDATE HAS BEEN NAMED!} Trump Pilot XYZ drives the current AOA-1 crazy and Huerta resigns thus bringing to an end the longest Administrator term of service
  6. The new FAA Administrator will be an individual who has previously served in a political position at 800 Independence. {NOTE:no one named.}
  7. NextGen will meet all its 2017 milestones. The airlines will concede that NextGen is worth their investment in equipage and Congress will fund this program for a 10-year period.
  1. After almost 70 years of awarding the Wright Brothers Memorial Trophy to
    1. famous aviators,
    2. aerospace executives,
    3. airline executives,
    4. Senators,
    5. Trade association leader,
    6. Congresspersons,
    7. world class aerospace engineers,
    8. DoT Secretaries,
    9. FAA Administrators
    10. Philanthropist, and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 11.one actor,

the National Aeronautical Association and the Aero Club of Washington will deem an Airport Director worthy of the prestigious award. {NOTE : While General Dailey was a nice choice, it is about time for someone involved in airports TO be selected.}

All 17 are certain to happen in 2017 

LESSON LEARNED: NO 2018 PROGNOSES

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