PREDICTIONS about today’s Part 107 Final Rule Releasewhat are your’s?

part 107 final rule release
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Part 107 Final Rule Release Predictions

Numerous press sources have announced that June 21, in addition to being the Summer Solstice, will be D-Day 2016. Not the kind we recall about the heroics on Normandy Beach, but the FAA’s long awaited FAA’s issuance of the UAS final regulations, some 16 months since the issuance of the NPRM. The below two articles inform you what the specifics will be and such clairvoyance is beyond this post’s vision. However, here are some predictions about the 21st (or later, but soon for sure):

  1. A significant percentage of the commentary will
    • abhor the new rules as too “liberal”,e. sacrificing safety in favor of easy operational parameters
      and
    • an equal number of experts will attack the new regulations as strangling this dynamic new enterprise, hurting private sector expansion while feathering positions for the government to restrict drones
      PLUS
    • Members of the Republican and Democratic parties will be included in both categories 1. a. and1. b. without regard to their party affiliation
      PLUS
    • Press releases will be issued supporting the 1.a. view and the 1.b view from associations and unions
  1. Lawsuits wPart 107 Final Rule Releaseill be filed in US Courts of Appeals contesting the lawfulness of the final rule
    • Some will take the position of 1.a
      And
    • Some will assume the position of 1.b
  1. Members of Congress will introduce bills correcting the Part 107 in multiple specific ways.

Part 107 Final Rule Release

  1. After years of litigation and legislation, Part 107 will remain in effect, largely unchanged in spite of 1-3 above. Courts will defer to the expertise of the FAA and Congress will be able to do nothing (that’s a surprise!!!)
  1. The FAA goal in issuing any final rule is to achieve the bimodal distribution predicted above. Equal +s and –s is, as Little Red Riding Hood would say, “just right.”

Part 107 Final Rule Release

  1. In 6 months to a year (approximately) the FAA WILL AMEND Part 107 due to technology like
    • A reliable UTM system
      Part 107 Final Rule Release
    • The introduction of “sense and avoid” technology
      Part 107 Final Rule Release
    • Proof that a geofencing system is 100% (maybe just 10-9) reliable
    • The addition of RFID chips which will allow identification of drones from the ground by regulators
    • Proof of the reliability of a drone or class of drones to a level of confidence that UASs will not crash over populated areas
      Part 107 Final Rule Release
      And
    • Many, many innovations beyond imagination which will justify greater degrees of freedom
  1. The FAA will be statutorily authorized to make revisions to Part 107 expeditiously, particularly those whish reduce restrictions on less than the current 5-10 years from NPRM to final rule (that’s a BIG prediction). 
  1. The US UAV businePart 107 Final Rule Releasess will flourish during this transition period. Yes, some advances will be delayed due to the slowness of the process, but the demand will not be deterred.
  1. There will be no major US UAV disasters.
  1. In some overseas country(ies) with very loose drone rules, an inadvertent drone accident will occur with some loss of life and/or property. Backlash from such a horrific incident will cause the government to drastically tighten its UAS restrictions and the drone business will be harmed by the overreaction[1].

It would be very interesting to see reactions in agreement or disagreement to these predictions. Please enter them in the below COMMENTS section.

 

ARTICLE: Leaked! Summary Of New FAA Commercial Drone Rules.

ARTICLE: Part 107 Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) Summary of Major Provisions Under 14 CFR 107

[1] A reading from the gospel of JLH (RIP).

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