17 Prognoses for 2017

aviation safety 2017
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2017 Aviation Safety

17 Prognoses That Are Certain to Happen

Aviation safety tracks do not move in straight lines. There are no macro variables of exogenous factors from which one can honestly forecast the future. In a policy environment affected by politics, the change in Administrations assures that all regulatory trends are likely subject to a sudden major warp. The 2017 occupancy changes to 1600 Pennsylvania, 1200 New Jersey Ave. and 800 Independence (see below) will likely distort the input sources for major aviation pronouncements.

2017 aviation safetyGiven those caveats, the below are not predictions or forecasts, but are intended to be the 17 prognoses drawn from Carnac the Magnificent’s Turban for Aviation Safety in 2017.

1.)  Part 23 implementation will be further delayed beyond the 8 months announced in the final rule; stated reason= difficulty in getting field trained; real reason= unknown.

2017 aviation safety

2.)  Problems in implementing the CO2 ICAO agreement from both ends of the spectrum: EU will try to implement another ETS scheme and some of the poorer countries will not move towards the goals based on the costs of the new aircraft.

2017 aviation safety

3.)  Chairman Shuster will introduce another ATC privatization bill; the Senate will not pass it; late in 2017, a consortium of IBM, Boeing, AT&T, SAIC, etc. will offer to buy the system; that process will start in 2017.2017 aviation safety

4.)  Part 107 waivers will become the norm of UAS operations. A major accident will occur with an outcry for greater regulation, until the NTSB investigates finding irresponsible pilot error thus quelling the riot.

2017 aviation safety

5.)  UTM will be implemented in a state (New York?) as a test case. the ATC privatization team (see #3) will be the major impetus for the UTM.

2017 aviation safety

6.)  In response to the NextGen ATC local implementation debacle, Congress will enact a bill which create a retroactive review process and fund 3rd party assistance for the communities in trying to find practical, reasonable, safe, efficient and environmentally sound alternatives acceptable to the FAA.

2017 aviation safety

7.)  The FAA Noise study will lower the standards to 55 DNL for its review of impacts and house sound insulation.

2017 aviation safety

8.)  ADS-B in/out becomes available at commercially attractive prices. The GA community becomes supportive.

2017 aviation safety

9.)  DoT Secretary Chao orders Administrator Huerta to investigate whether Ireland can adequately surveil Norwegian’s multi-country operation FROM A SAFETY BASIS.

2017 aviation safety

10.)  The review of the Irish Aviation Authorities finds significant deficiencies and the former Secretary of Labor receives kudos from ALPA, she issues a similar order of investigation to the new FAA Administrator (see #14) to determine whether the Arab Countries are really providing the required level of safety oversight for its(the singular pronoun is intended) carriers. The unions and Open & Fair Skies are ecstatic.

2017 aviation safety

11.)  FAA will approve an Organization Designation Authorization to qualified firms for certifying new Part 135 operators seeking a single pilot or single pilot in command certificates.

2017 aviation safety

12.)  A large number of FAA FSDO personnel will take early retirement; exit interviews will find that their departure was driven by the new Compliance v. Enforcement Policy. Creates a new generation of POIs, PMIs, etc.

2017 aviation safety

13.)  SMS will be recognized by the National Safety Council, ICAO and the Flight Safety Foundation as having resulted in the greatest (even beyond expectations) reduction of accidents/incidents over a 10-year period in US Aviation history. TIME magazine and President Trump will highlight this achievement.

2017 aviation safety

14.)  Administrator Huerta will retain his position as protected by his statutory 5-year term UNTIL the chief pilot for the Trump plane is named the Deputy Administrator (note: the pilot of a previous Presidential candidate/President was named ADA-1). Trump Pilot XYZ drives the current AOA-1 crazy and Huerta resigns thus bringing to an end the longest Administrator term of service.

2017 aviation safety

15.)  The new FAA Administrator will be an individual who has previously served in a political position at 800 Independence.

2017 aviation safety

16.)  NextGen will meet all its 2017 milestones. The airlines will concede that NextGen is worth their investment in equipage and Congress will fund this program for a 10-year period.

2017 aviation safety

17.)  After almost 70 years of awarding the Wright Brothers Memorial Trophy to

  1. famous aviators,
  2. aerospace executives,
  3. airline executives,
  4. Senators,
  5. Trade association leader,
  6. Congresspersons,
  7. world class aerospace engineers,
  8. DoT Secretaries,
  9. FAA Administrators
  10. Philanthropist, and
  11. one actor,

the National Aeronautical Association and the Aero Club of Washington will deem an Airport Director worthy of the prestigious award.

2017 aviation safety

All 17 are certain to happen in 2017

Return to this site tomorrow to see the scorecard for the JDA Journal 2016 Prognoses

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